Peak ages: Chelsea's squad is primed to win now (2024)

This piece is part of a series looking at the age profiles of squads for teams that we cover in the Premier League, Championship and Scottish Premiership, following The Athletic’s article by Tom Worville considering “peak age” across different positions.Goalkeepers tend to peak later in their careers, and flying full-backs generally peak earlier — it’s all in there.

The analysis was calculated based on the share of minutes per age across each position, over the past 10 Premier League seasons. Off the back of that work, each club writer is looking more closely at the current state of their playing squad to see how each player’s age profile shapes up relative to their respective peak.

It is customary for a manager who has a squad capable of challenging for the title to downplay their chances for as long as possible and Thomas Tuchel is no different at Chelsea.

At first glance, no one should blame him. Chelsea haven’t threatened to finish top since they last won the Premier League in 2017. Since then Manchester City (three) and Liverpool (one), their main rivals for the trophy this season, have claimed the prize four times between them.

When you add that Tuchel has only been in charge of Chelsea since January but Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp have been at the helm of City and Liverpool for five and six years, he has every right to be cautious, regardless of the Champions League triumph in May.

At the start of the season, Tuchel also placed Chelsea behind Manchester United in the pecking order. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side finished as runners-up in 2020-21 and then added Cristiano Ronaldo, Jadon Sancho and Raphael Varane to their group.

“I see us as the No 4, that cannot be the favourite in the next year,” Tuchel said in August. “This is the Premier League, a tough competition. It’s on us, we are in this role and in the role of the hunters, we have to close the gap to Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United.”

However, Tuchel is already facing a difficult task to maintain his argument with Chelsea going into the November international break with a three-point lead in first place.

Chelsea have obviously also spent a fortune on their squad to ensure it can compete with the best. But there is another factor that needs to be taken into account when assessing what the club can do during this campaign.

Looking at The Athletic’s in-depth study, which calculates “peak” age range per position, Chelsea’s average squad age is actually just shy of one year above their peak when considering all the players in their respective positions — Tuchel has an almost-perfect blend of youth and experience to achieve success.

Take the goalkeeping department, for example. The last decade has shown goalkeepers perform at their best in the top division between 26 to 30. At 29 and 27, Chelsea duo Edouard Mendy and Kepa Arrizabalaga fit perfectly into that bracket.

In defence, only Antonio Rudiger fits the ideal, which has been measured as from over 25 to under 29. The best years of Andreas Christensen, Trevoh Chalobah and Malang Sarr are still to come, while Cesar Azpilicueta and particularly Thiago Silva are at the other end of the scale.

Two of the reasons Chelsea’s overall age is slightly over the ideal “peak” are Silva (37) and Azpilicueta (32). Their ages will have a negative effect on the numbers but their experience at the highest level is having a positive impact on the pitch.

The same could be said in midfield where N’Golo Kante, Jorginho and Mateo Kovacic are all deemed to be past the average peak (24 to 27 for midfielders), but the trio are key components of Tuchel’s system.

When it comes to the attacking positions, there is much more room for growth and improvement. Those who operate at wing-back have been included in this part of the pitch because Tuchel puts great emphasis on them getting forward into the final third. This is borne out by Reece James, Ben Chilwell and Marcus Alonso having eight goals between them.

Of the seven players in that bracket, five are younger than their supposed peak: Christian Pulisic, Mason Mount, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Chilwell and James. It is quite encouraging to think the quintet can only get better when you think of the talent they possess.

Kai Havertz and Timo Werner have come in for a bit of criticism since their high-profile moves from Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig last year. However, perhaps their displays will be seen in a slightly more sympathetic light when you look at their ages in comparison to their expected peaks. However, club-record buy Romelu Lukaku, who cost £97.5 million from Inter Milan, should be at the top of his game at 28.

Anyone who has watched Chelsea this season will know they are a talented bunch. Tuchel will undoubtedly still try to maintain his rhetoric that it is too early to consider them to be the team to beat. He won’t want the pressure on his or their shoulders.

But this analysis indicates Chelsea are exactly where they belong and Tuchel needs to make the most of his squad now.

(Top photo: Chloe Knott – Danehouse/Getty Images)