A popular question in the MUT community right now with Harvest Part 1 is "Which Prediction Sets are the best to complete?". While there's no clear right or wrong answer, we've decided to take a mathematical approach to find the sets with the greatest potential of returning the most Coins for our Prediction Tokens (and which sets to avoid).
For this article, we will be calculating the Expected Value (EV) of each set. Simply put, EV is the estimated probability of an event happening, multiplied by its Coin reward. Now, let's first take a look at the overall rankings, best to worst, followed by our analysis and methodology:
EV Rankings
- 49ers Hold SEA to 2 TDs or less (8,305.5)
- Packers 2+ Sacks (7,222.2)
- Lions Win (6,296)
- 49ers Win (6,279.5)
- Cowboys Win (6,157.5)
- Scorigami (5,900)
- Cowboys 100% FG/XP (5,364)
- Commanders 275+ Passing Yards (4,500)
- Seahawks 115+ Rushing Yards (4,333.3)
- Seahawks Win (3,958.5)
- Commanders Win (3,405)
- Packers Win (3,380)
- Lions 4+ TDs (3,194.4)
Prediction Analysis
#1 49ers Hold SEA to 2 TDs or less
- 11,500 Coins if correct
- Limit of 3
- Estimated Probability=72.2%
- EV=8,305.5
If you're looking for the highest potential return on your Prediction Tokens, this set can be completed up to 3 times. The 49ers have only allowed more than 2 TDs in a game 1 time out of their 9 previous games, while the Seahawks have scored 2 or fewer TDs in 5 of their 9 games. The probability here is very high for an 11,500 Coin reward.
#2 Packers 2+ Sacks
- 13,000 Coins if correct
- Limit of 3
- Estimated Probability=55.5%
- EV=7,222.2
Here we have another good set with a high EV that can be completed up to 3 times. The probability of this prediction is pretty straightforward. The Packers have recorded 2+ sacks in 5/9 games while the Lions have allowed 2 or more sacks in 5/9 games. The Packers recorded exactly 2 sacks the last time these two teams met earlier this year. It's less likely to occur than the previous prediction, but the Coin reward is slightly higher to help offset some of the difference.
#3 Lions Win
- 8,000 Coins if correct
- Limit of 5
- Vegas Implied Probability=78.7%
- EV=6,296
If you prefer game-winner sets, a Lions win will return 8,000 Coins. Vegas has Detroit with an implied win probability of 78.7% at home over the Packers, making the Lions the team with the highest EV in a head-to-head matchup on Thanksgiving.
#4 49ers Win
- 9,500 Coins if correct
- Limit of 5
- Vegas Implied Probability=66.1%
- EV=6,279.5
Coming in just behind the Lions with the second-highest head-to-head matchup EV is the 49ers Prediction. Vegas has the 49ers-Seahawks matchup being a bit closer than the Lions game, but with a 9,500 return, it's a good set to consider if you like the 49ers chances on the road.
#5 Cowboys Win
- 7,500 Coins if correct
- Limit of 5
- Vegas Implied Probability=82.1%
- EV=6,157.5
Next up, we have the final Vegas favorite of the 3 Thanksgiving Day matchups. The Cowboys have the highest probability of winning their matchup, but the lowest Coin reward of the 3 for a correct prediction. With an EV above 6,000, it's a set worth considering if you're confident the Cowboys have what it takes to beat the Commanders in Dallas.
#6 Scorigami
- 100,000 Coins if correct
- Limit of 5
- Estimated Probability=5.9%
- EV=5,900
Coming in with the 6th highest EV of the group is the set with the highest Coin reward, but also the prediction least likely to occur - Scorigami. It's certainly a longshot that 1 of the 3 Thanksgiving Day games will end with a score that's never happened before in NFL history, but with a potential 100,000 Coin reward and the fact we've already had 5 Scorigamis this season, it's a good set to take a chance on. Plus, it's the most interesting one of the bunch!
#7 Cowboys 100% FG/XP%
- 6,000 Coins if correct
- Limit of 3
- Estimated Probability=89.4%
- EV=5,364
Dallas Cowboys Kicker Brandon Aubrey is off to a great start to his rookie season, going a perfect 19/19 on field goals and nearly perfect on PATs at 26/27. If you're looking for the prediction most likely to happen, another perfect kicking performance from Aubrey is probably the safest play of them all.
#8 Commanders 275+ Passing Yards
- 15,000 Coins if correct
- Limit of 3
- Estimated Probability=30%
- EV=4,500
Once we drop below 5,000 EV, we're entering the sets-to-avoid territory. It may pay 15,000 Coins if it's correct, but the odds Sam Howell throws for 275+ against the Cowboys are pretty low. Howell has thrown for 275+ in 6/10 games this season. However, the Cowboys have not allowed more than 253 passing yards in a single game this season. We think there are better options for your Tokens.
#9 Seahawks 115+ Rushing Yards
- 13,000 Coins if correct
- Limit of 3
- Estimated Probability=33.3%
- EV=4,333.3
The Seahawks have surpassed 115 rushing yards as a team 4 out of 9 times this season. In order to rush for 115+ against the 49ers, they will have to accomplish a feat that only 2 of 9 teams have done against the San Francisco D this year. The probability is just too low here for us to use a Predictor Token.
#10 Seahawks Win
- 10,500 Coins if correct
- Limit of 5
- Vegas Implied Probability=37.7%
- EV=3,958.5
The explanation for this set and the next 2 will all be the same. The Coin reward for all 3 underdogs just isn't high enough to justify the low probability of them winning their respective games on Thanksgiving Day.
#11 Commanders Win
- 15,000 Coins if correct
- Limit of 5
- Vegas Implied Probability=22.7%
- EV=3,405
Just like the previous set, the Coin reward for all 3 underdogs is not high enough for the low probability of winning their Thanksgiving Day game. The Commanders also have the lowest probability of winning out of all 6 teams, according to Vegas, of course.
#12 Packers Win
- 13,000 Coins if correct
- Limit of 5
- Vegas Implied Probability=26%
- EV=3,380
You guessed it; the Coin reward is too low to justify the risk that the Packers beat the 7-2 Lions in Detroit.
#13 Lions 4+ TDs
- 11,500 Coins if correct
- Limit of 3
- Estimated Probability=27.8%
- EV=3,194.4
Finally, we have the set with the lowest Expected Value (EV). The Lions Offense has been red-hot this season, scoring 4 or more TDs in 4 of their 9 games. The Packers Defense has only allowed 4 or more TDs in 1 of their 9 games this season, but it was against the Lions. If you think the Lions have what it takes to repeat their Week 4 performance, who are we to tell you not to go for it? The probability and Coin reward are both far too low for us though.
Methodology
Probability x Coins = Expected Value (EV)
While the Coin reward is known for calculating Expected Value (EV), we've used Vegas Moneylines to assist with estimating the probability of game winners (this is why some probabilities add up to over 100%).
For prop-style predictions, we compared how many times a team has achieved the specific goal this year against the number of times the opposing team has allowed it to happen and found the average.
For Scorigami, the probability was determined by comparing the amount of Scorigami games against the total number of NFL games since 2021 and accounting for 3 different chances (games) for it to hit.
Hopefully, this article helps some of you with your Predictions. If you are looking for the safest predictions to come true, we recommend looking at both Cowboys sets. If you want the best potential return that relies on some very basic math, go for the 49ers to hold the Seahawks to 2 TDs or less and the Packers 2+ sacks sets. If you like to live dangerously and root for the long shot, Scorigami is what you want.
Ultimately, do whatever will be the most fun for you. Happy Thanksgiving! 🦃
Which sets will you be completing with your Prediction Tokens?
