2023 Spring Training survey: MLB insiders on the players, teams and stories to watch (2024)

Listen closely. Off in the distance, I know you can hear it.

Isn’t that the unmistakable thwack of bats meeting baseballs? Isn’t that the special thump of fastballs pounding the leather of a bullpen full of catchers’ mitts?

You know those sounds. They’re the sounds of baseball. They’re the sounds of spring training. And they’re here. They’re happening. They’re filling our hearts with warmth, at a time when we’re guessing you’ve never been more ready to focus on something, anything, that doesn’t involve mystery balloons in the sky, the price of Taylor Swift tickets and the joys of Super Bowl officiating.

An especially wild, multibillion-dollar baseball offseason is history. It sure was a blast — if you were related to any free-agent shortstops. But now, for the rest of us, it’s time for the fun stuff. Unchain those gates at the Ballpark at Camelback Ranch. Head off to the back fields at Joker Marchant Stadium. Another spring training is up and running.

So here, to help us zone in on the big storylines of spring, is an insightful panel of 29 executives, former executives, coaches and scouts. They just took part in our annual spring preview survey, and were granted anonymity so that they could speak freely. And there’s nothing we’d enjoy more than passing along their always-revealing thoughts.

Just call them the Power Rangers

After six straight sub-.500 finishes, we don’t know if the Rangers are ready to blow past the Astros. Heck, we don’t even know if they’re ready to blow past the Mariners. But we know one thing they’re ready to win:

This survey.

MOST IMPROVED TEAMS (AL)
Rangers: 28
Blue Jays: 17
Yankees: 16
Angels: 12
Mariners: 8
Twins: 7

How ’bout that. Of our 29 voters, 28 included the Rangers on their list of most improved American League teams. And that kind of near-unanimity should tell us something. Unfortunately, not even the folks who voted for them were sure exactly what.

If the Rangers’ new collection of rotation luminaries — Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and Jake Odorizzi — all make 32 starts apiece this year, that adds up to 128 starts on our calculators. But would youbet on that? The four of them combined for 67 starts last year. So is this staff going to dominate the AL West or the AL injured list? Who the heck can say? Not our panel, anyway:

•“I don’t know if they’ll be way over .500 or way under, because they have so many questions about their starting pitchers staying healthy. But if they do stay healthy, wow. They’re going to be really good.”

•“They added four key starters for $263 million, added to the $556 million they spent (on position players last winter). The cost of rebuilding is expensive!”

SURVEY SAID:Were there really only six teams trying in the entire American League this winter? You’d definitely get that impression from this survey, because just six teams got more thanonevote. … The Guardians did get one vote. But that was it for the AL Central, other than the Twins … The Blue Jays and Yankees separated themselves from the rest of the AL East. … The Angels and Mariners got lots of love in the AL West. … And then there were the Twins, who somehow made the biggest free-agent signing in their history ($200 million, for six years of Carlos Correa) feel like a bargain buy at Nordstrom Rack. … Oh, and one more thing: Even though the Blue Jays and Yankees nearly tied, there was a noticeable outpouring of survey love for the Blue Jays’ strategic pickups of Chris Bassitt, Daulton Varsho, Kevin Kiermaier and Brandon Belt. “That team,” said one voter, “is scary.”

The Phillies played in the World Series — and then got better

The Mets spent $423.17 million at Steve Cohen’s favorite Free Agent Super Store. … The Padres laid out almost $300 million to display Xander Bogaerts, Michael Wacha, Matt Carpenter, Seth Lugo and other assorted friends in their free-agent showroom. … The Cubs signedninefree agents to major-league contracts, to deals worth north of $300 million. And yet, while those three clubs all got many votes in this survey for Most Improved National League Team …

None of them got as many nominations as the Phillies. Thank you, Trea Turner!

MOST IMPROVED TEAMS ( NL)
Phillies: 23
Padres: 20
Mets: 19
Cubs: 18
Giants: 4
Diamondbacks: 2

We’ll expound more on the Turner lovefest later in this opus. But one voter after another waxed eloquent about what a “perfect fit” he was for a Phillies team that chased him hard from Day One of the offseason, then reeled him in for 11 years and $300 million.

There was also lots of praise for the depth added by Dave Dombrowski’s bullpen shopping spree (Gregory Soto, Craig Kimbrel, Matt Strahm), not to mention serious gushing over the upside of 19-year-old budding ace Andrew Painter. So despite mixed reviews on the Taijuan Walker deal (four years, $72 million), this panel made it clear it views the Phillies as a vastly more legit powerhouse than last year’s surprise World Series invader:

•“Trea Turner is so good that when that team gets (Bryce) Harper back, I think you could argue that’s the best lineup we’ve seen in the game since the ’90s Indians, with their combination of power, speed and average.”

SURVEY SAID:The NL half of this survey was even more top-heavy than the AL. Here’s a shocker: The four teams that wrote the biggest checks — the Phillies, Padres, Mets and Cubs — commanded virtually all the votes. Nobody else got more than fourvotes. … But the team that got those four votes was a team widely viewed outside the sport as having one of the most disappointing offseasons — namely, the Giants. No Aaron Judge. No Correa. But Farhan Zaidi did what he does best — added depth around the edges, with Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Taylor Rogers and the usual assortment of plug-and-play free agents on minor-league deals.

How much have the Dodgers slipped?

One of the longstanding traditions of this survey is a question that asks some variation of: Who is theleastimproved team in each league? But something happened in this year’s survey that we didn’t see coming:

A behemoth that won 111 games last year — that would be your Chavez Ravine Dodgers — finished stunningly high in the voting for Least Improved NL Team. Wait. Really?

LEAST IMPROVED TEAMS (NL)
Rockies: 25
Reds: 16
Dodgers: 12
Nationals: 12
Pirates: 7
Marlins: 5

All right, so it’s not as if our panel piled on the Dodgers as if they were the Rockies or Reds. And one exec who voted for the Dodgers added, “They’ll still win the West,” practically in the same breath.

But it was still a shock to see how many votes went to a juggernaut that just won more games than any National League team since the 1906 Cubs. Those votes were a clear reflection of the questions left by the Dodgers’ reluctance to plow aggressively into free agency despite the exits of Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Tyler Anderson and Cody Bellinger. A sampling of reviews:

•“Oh, they’ll still be good. Will they be a playoff team? Probably. But when you lose all those guys and you also lose Walker Buehler (to Tommy John surgery), that’s a lot to replace. They usually do a great job of assessing who to keep and who to let walk. But I think letting Trea Turner walk is going to really hurt.”

•“They’ve got good young pitching coming. I know that. But when you lose the sheer number of Wins Above Replacement that just walked out the door (12.4 bWAR in those four players above), that’s tough. Just losing Turner, man, that’s really hard to replace.”

In other news, here’s your AL leaderboard:

LEAST IMPROVED TEAMS (AL)
Tigers: 19
A’s: 16
White Sox: 12
Red Sox: 11
Royals: 10
Orioles: 6

SURVEY SAID: Did you knowthe Rockies somehow went through a whole offseason and signed exactly one free-agent to a major-league contract: 32-year-old reliever Pierce Johnson. Let’s just say our voters noticed. Only four votersdidn’tput them on their Least Improved list.… But thewhat the heck are the Reds doingcrowd was just as worked up. “If they don’t win this category in a landslide,” another voter quipped, “this election was rigged.” … But you should know that 10 of the 15 NL teams got votes for Least Improved. Which was actually fewer than the 11 teams that got votes in the AL. So boy, was this an odd winter. … You’ll be hearing more about a couple of those AL teams later, but we thought the disappointment in the Orioles’ quiet offseason was notable: “You’ve got to love their young core,” said one exec. “But they’re obviously not serious about competing. They had lots of chips to trade and get pitching, but they’d rather just tread water.”

Is there a bigger team-changer than Trea Turner?

There was a whole buffet line of move-the-needle shortstops this winter. The Phillies could have added $300 million to the checking accounts of any of them. Instead, their president of baseball ops, noted star-power fan Dave Dombrowski, walked into Trea Turner’s house last November and told him, unequivocally: “You’re our first choice.”

Eleven years and 300 million bucks later, Turner was a Phillie. But you already knew that. What you didn’t know was that the voters in our survey showered him with more votes for Best Free Agent (15) than any other player in baseball.

BEST FREE-AGENT SIGNINGS
Trea Turner (Phillies): 15
Carlos Correa (Twins): 11
Carlos Rodón (Yankees): 10
Aaron Judge (Yankees): 8
Xander Bogaerts (Padres): 7
José Abreu (Astros): 6
Dansby Swanson (Cubs): 5
Jacob deGrom (Rangers): 5

This survey won’t pay for quite as many Turner family vacations in Maui as that $300 million. But the survey results speak as loudly as the contract in describing how good at baseball this dude is.

Over the last three seasons, Turner has turned into as multi-talented an offensive monster as anybody in the sport. In that span, he’s cranked out more extra-base hits than Mookie Betts, more singles than anybody in the sport and more stolen bases than anyone except Starling Marte — with a slash line (.316/.364/.514) matched by Freddie Freeman and, well, that’s it. So no wonder our voters were so effusive about him.

•“Possible MVP.”

•“He’s a difference-maker now. And I think he’ll age well.”

•“He’s a great player. He’s a great fit for that city. It’s honestly one of the best free-agent signings in a long time.”

•“I love him in Philly. I love him on that team. And I don’t give a crap about the years. Everybody knows that’s just a way to get around the (luxury-tax burden). It means absolutely nothing.”

SURVEY SAID: So how’d the other shortstops on the buffet line fare? Carlos Correa (11) was second, just ahead of Carlos Rodón (10). Then came Xander Bogaerts (seven) and Dansby Swanson (five). More on how the panel viewed them coming right up. … Most votes by non-shortstops and non-Carloses: Aaron Judge (eight), José Abreu (six), Jacob deGrom (five), Justin Verlander (four). … Amazingly, 30 different free agents got at least one vote — including one for Andrew McCutchen’s return to Pittsburgh, just for the “sentimental” value and one for … Bruce Bochy, back in the dugout in Texas.

We still have no idea what to make of Jacob deGrom

The Mets just spent nearly half a billion dollars on free agents this winter. But is it possible that the guy theydidn’tsign was their biggest free-agent statement?

That’s Jacob deGrom, of course. What is he about to tell us, while the Rangers are busy paying him $185 million over these next five seasons?

Is he about to win, say, five Cy Youngs in a row while rolling up a 1.07 ERA? Or was it possibly not a fluke that he’s missed 40 starts over the last two years because of stuff that flared up in his shoulder, elbow, forearm, lat, side and back?

We ask because the voters in this survey are just as confused about this guy as the rest of us. Yes, he got five votes in the Best Free-Agent Signing portion of this poll. But he got almost twice as many votes (nine) in the Worst Free-Agent Signing competition. Is that good?

•“I’m rooting for deGrom, but that could easily be the worst free-agent signing of the winter. I think I’m like a lot of people. I’d rather have two years of Verlander than five of deGrom.”

•“Five years was at least one — if not four — years too many. … There is no doubt that he is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but that only holds true if he is on the mound and not in the training room.”

•“What’s the over/under on games started for him over the life of the contract — five years, ages 34-38? Let’s say it’s 100. That’s 20 starts a year for five years. Who really thinks that is happening? … And who knows if he’ll be available in September or October?”

No wonder he wound up so high on this leaderboard:

WORST FREE-AGENT SIGNING
Masataka Yoshida (Red Sox): 10
Jacob deGrom (Rangers): 9
Taijuan Walker (Phillies): 7
Xander Bogaerts (Padres): 5
Brandon Nimmo (Mets): 5
Andrew Benintendi (White Sox): 5
Kenley Jansen (Red Sox): 4
Mike Clevinger (White Sox): 4

SURVEY SAID:If it makes deGrom feel better, he’s one of 12 guys who showed up on both the best and worst free-agent lists. And that’s a survey tradition like no other. The others: Bogaerts, Rodón, Swanson, Turner, Verlander, Judge, Bellinger, Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Kodai Senga and Jameson Taillon. Quite a few of those had more to do with the length of the deals than the players who signed them. … But Boston’s five-year, $90 million signing of Yoshida felt like more of a commentary on the team than either the player or his contract. One voter’s review: “$105 million, including the posting (fee)? Really?” … And here’s another: “I don’t like that one, especially considering the team it came from. You mean that’swhere you’re going to extend yourself? That’s a head-scratcher.” … Maybe the biggest surprise in this whole survey?A guy who failed two physicals(Correa) didn’t getonevote for Worst Free-Agent Signing.

The Shoh must go on

Is it The Spring of Ohtani or The Year of Ohtani? Or would it be more accurate just to say we’re now all living on Planet Ohtani? Whatever. Get that seat back in the upright and locked position because it’s the last year of Shohei Ohtani’s residency in L.A. of Anaheim — and that’s a topic that’s likely to flare up!

It sure flared up in this survey. When we asked our voters to nominate the AL storylines they found most compelling this spring, it was Ohtani in a landslide.

MOST INTRIGUING SPRING STORIES (AL)
Ohtani/miscellaneous Angels subplots: 12
Yankees position battles/other Yankees: 5
Red Sox assorted dramas: 4
Rangers/deGrom/health intrigue: 4

Will the Angels trade Ohtani? Is there any way they extend him? Is there possibly some other level he can reach, as a hitter, as a pitcher or both? Can they find a way to get him to October? Can he win a Cy Young, MVP and Nobel Peace Prize all in the same year? We’ll be wondering these things pretty much daily, from Presidents’ Day to Halloween. Can’t wait.

•“This will be the story all year.”

•“He’ll be in the news every day — for something.”

•“Ohtani! Everything Ohtani!”

SURVEY SAID:So many AL East storylines came up, from Red Sox life-after-Bogaerts turmoil to tangible Blue Jays buzz, from the never-ending Rays ballpark saga to intrigue about all the Orioles’ phenoms and (of course) every imaginable Yankees scenario. … Another topic we thought would get more votes: How much better will the White Sox chemistry be without Tony La Russa to push their buttons? Only one vote for that one!

Will we be able to take our eyes off the Padres?

We knew money would talk in this survey. We just thought it would be Steve Cohen’s money. Sure, that was a big topic. But it wasn’tthetopic that came up most when we asked our voters to name NL stories they were most interested in.

MOST INTRIGUING SPRING STORIES (NL)
Padres payroll/stars/Tatis: 12
Mets spending/owner: 6
NL East firepower: 5
Mets pitchers’ age/health: 4
Dodgers reset/Ohtani stalking: 4

Yup, it turned out to be those star-chasing San Diego Padres that grabbed the most attention in this group. Does their spend-money-to-make-money approach work in a market like San Diego? Our voters can’t wait to find out. Is there enough room in the ego-sphere for all their stars to shine? Excellent question. But, above all …

Remember that guy on their roster who we once thought was destined to be the next Face of Baseball — Fernando Tatis Jr.? Boy, is he a hot topic, after two strange and disappointing seasons filled with injuries, immaturity and a motorcycle mishap … not to mention a disastrous 80-game suspension for using Clostebol, a steroid once used by the East German Olympic team to blow up the record book in multiple sports.

Our panel had lots of questions about where Tatis goes from here — like these:

•“That’s the one guy, I need to see where he is right now.”

•“People will be watching him. If he doesn’t say the right things and do the right things, players won’t be shy about calling him out. He has to reintegrate himself back into their mix. And that won’t be easy.”

SURVEY SAID:Didn’t want to give you the impression our voters weren’t that worked up about Cohen and the Mets. He remains the most talked about owner in baseball — because $$$$$$$$$! One NL scout summed it up well with this question: “What impact does Steve Cohen have on the rest of the industry?” Um, the Steve Cohen Tax 2.0? … Author’s note: We often lump storylines involving the same team into one vote-counting category. This was one case where it was hard to look at the owner’s tax bill and actual on-the-field stuff as part of the same conversation. … Some other random topics that got votes: Who playsshortstop in Atlanta? … Can Jazz Chisholm handle center field in Miami? …and this fascinating, league-spanning question:What team signed the right shortstop?

Who’s feeling the heat?

There’s no more illuminating section of this survey than the part where we ask our voters to name the teams, front offices and/or managers who are under the most pressure this spring. Most years, there are multiple contenders. But this year’s leader was basically Secretariat in the 1973 Kentucky Derby.

CHAIM BLOOM/RED SOX FRONT OFFICE (20 VOTES): Pretty much everyone in baseball likes Chaim Bloom, the beleaguered chief baseball officer of the Red Sox. But when a guy rakes in this many votes in a survey like this, we think it’s safe to say this isn’t going well!The fan base is in rebellion. The rest of the industry is generally confused about why a money-making machine like the Red Sox would lowball a local hero like Bogaerts, then turn around and overpay an unknown quantity like Yoshida. But the conclusions were the same: If this team doesn’t win … uh-oh. “Here’s his problem,” said one voter of Bloom. “When (principal owner) John Henry is feeling the heat and (team chairman) Tom Werner is feeling the heat, they’ll throw anybody under the bus.”

A.J. PRELLER/PADRES FRONT OFFICE (NINE VOTES): We’ve basically covered this. If there’s some levelbeyond“all in,” the Padres are at it. Meanwhile, the Dodgers haven’t been this vulnerable in a decade. So this had better work. “That’s the front office under the most heat, and it’s not even close,” said one AL exec. “It’s complete ‘Go’ time in San Diego. I think if the Dodgers take them down again this year, it’ll be head-rolling time.”

PERRY MINASIAN/ANGELS FRONT OFFICE (EIGHT VOTES): The consensus is, Minasian has actually done a really good job under challenging circ*mstances. Nevertheless, his owner (Arte Moreno) is no longer looking to get out. His biggest star (Ohtani) is actively looking to get out. And that’s a rough recipe for any GM. “I’m just afraid the Ohtani thing is going to fall in his lap,” said one voter. “He’s in an impossible situation. He can’t trade the guy because the owner won’t let him. He can’t pay the guy because the player won’t take his money. So all the pressure is on Perry, unless they have a magical season.”

OTHER FRONT OFFICES FEELING THE HEAT: After those three came the Mets (pick a scapegoat) if they don’t win (five votes) … then the Yankees tag team of Aaron Boone (three votes) and Brian Cashman (two) if the Mets take over New York … then Zaidi and the Giants (four votes) if they can’t hang with the Padres and Dodgers in the NL West stratosphere.

Didn’t you used to be the A’s?

Ready for one of our favorite questions every year? We ask these folks: Name the least recognizable team in baseball. We knew going in this year what team would win. The only shocker here was that those star-unstudded Oakland Athletics weren’t unanimous.

LEAST RECOGNIZABLE TEAM
A’s: 18
Nationals: 11
Reds: 11
Pirates: 5
Tigers: 5

Once, there was a time when the A’s led the league in Matts (Olson and Chapman). Marcus Semien had that year when he was a beloved “A.” The charismatic Liam Hendriks once hung out on their mound. So did Bassitt, Manaea and Frankie Montas. Now even Sean Murphy has spun out their revolving door.

So that led to America’s favorite spring preview survey game, Name Six A’s!And not surprisingly, nobody wanted to play that game.

• “I’m in their division, and I’m not sure if I could do it,” said one AL West executive, laughing uproariously.

• “They’ve traded ‘em all,” said an NL exec. “They still have that outfielder, (Ramón) Laureano, right? I can name him. And he’ll be traded by the deadline.”

• “This isn’t fair,” said another voter. “Can I name Brad Pitt?”

In other voting news …

The five best free-agent bargains

Carlos Correa (Twins): 4
José Abreu (Astros): 4
J.D. Martinez (Dodgers): 4
Brandon Belt (Blue Jays): 3
Michael Conforto (Giants): 3

SURVEY SAID: Is Correa the first $200 million “bargain” in free-agent history? We’ll vote yes on that. … Abreu was really the Astros’ only big-league free agent, if you don’t count free agents they re-signed. And the Abreu deal was a popular move among our panel. “I love that signing for that team,” one voter said. … And attention, bargain-bin shoppers: Beyond this group, 10 other players got multiple votes: Zach Eflin, Bassitt, Trey Mancini, Nelson Cruz, Matt Carpenter, Bellinger, Pollock, Michael Brantley, Heaney and Lugo. … Plus one more vote for Bruce Bochy.

The five best trades of the offseason

Sean Murphy to the Braves: 15
Both ends of Marlins-Twins*: 6
Both ends of Blue Jays-Diamondbacks **: 5
Teoscar Hernández to Mariners: 4
William Contreras to Brewers: 4

(*-Principals in Marlins-Twins trade: Luis Arraez/Pablo López)
(**-Principals in Blue Jays-Diamondbacks deal: Daulton Varsho/Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.)

SURVEY SAID:The Twins-Marlins deal turned into a sensational hot-button topic. Besides all the voters who liked both sides, three loved Arraez to Miami and two were all in on López (plus prospects) to Minnesota. … Ditto on the Tigers’ trade of Soto to the Phillies: Two votes for the Soto part. Two votes for the players Detroit got back (Matt Vierling, Nick Maton). … But also: Has anyone mentioned it wasn’t a real trade-happy offseason?

Three players who could get traded this spring

Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): 9
Max Kepler (Twins): 4
Chris Flexen (Mariners): 4

SURVEY SAID: Even though Reynolds got the most votes, there was actually more “now or the deadline” sentiment than “he shouldn’t get too comfortable in Bradenton, Fla.,” sentiment. “I just think Pittsburgh’s clock is ticking,” said one voter. “So if somebody even gets close to their price, they need to jump. They need to get as much value for him as they can possibly get. And logic tells you the best time to get it is now.” … Some of the other fun names that got a vote or two: TylerO’Neill, Tatis, Tyler Glasnow, Madison Bumgarner, Gleyber Torres and (yep) Ohtani.

The four most important spring injury comebacks

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 16
Chris Sale: 7
Michael Conforto: 5
Bryce Harper: 5

SURVEY SAID: The group with three votes apiece was just as star-studded: deGrom, the Braves’ Ozzie Albies/Ronald Acuña Jr. tag team and an Angels third baseman who we think used to be Anthony Rendon, back when he actually was able to play for a few weeks in a row. … No team had more players make this list than the Braves, with Albies, Acuña and Mike Soroka (two votes). … You know who got zero votes? The artist formerly known as Stephen Strasburg. … They’re not paying the athletic trainers enough, because 23 different players got votes!

Seven phenoms to watch this spring

Gunnar Henderson (Orioles): 13
Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks): 11
Andrew Painter (Phillies): 9
Jordan Walker (Cardinals): 8
Grayson Rodriguez (Orioles): 7
Anthony Volpe (Yankees): 6
Francisco Álvarez (Mets): 6

SURVEY SAID: How bright is the future of this sport? So bright that 25 phenoms got votes in this category. But it felt like the gushing over Carroll was at another level. “I won’t be shocked if he makes the All-Star team,” an AL exec said. And how about this from an NL exec: “It’s not just speed. It’s game-changing speed. But he’s also a five-tool guy. I haven’t seen anyone run like him who can also play like him.”

Most likely rule-change controversy waiting to happen

Finally, how could we not ask this group about the rule-change wildness they think is coming this spring? There was a smattering of votes for nefarious strategies to beat (or cheat) the shift ban. But basically, this was just a bunch of variations of Adventures in Pitch Clock Wackiness. Here’s an entertaining sampling:

• “Imagine how many guys are going to be (complaining) about these (pitch-clock) violations. You’ve got some players and umpires who don’t have a real good relationship to begin with. Now you’re adding this in there? You’re gonna see some people lose their s—!”

• “The Mets are going to try a ton of stuff. I bet Buck (Showalter) is going to have his pitchers just hold the ball after they get to two (disengagements) and take a chance that they can pick guys off.”

• “I can’t wait for the first pitch-clock violation with runners on base, or in scoring position, that ends up deciding a game. What will we call that walk-off?”

(Top image: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic; Photos: Kathryn Riley; G Fiume; Ron Jenkins; Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)